The rise in subprime mortgage lending likely
boosted home sales somewhat, and curbs on this
lending are expected to be a source of some
restraint on home purchases and residential
investment in coming quarters. Moreover, we are
likely to see further increases in delinquencies
and foreclosures this year and next as many
adjustable-rate loans face interest-rate resets.
All that said, given the fundamental factors in
place that should support the demand for housing,
we believe the effect of the troubles in the
subprime sector on the broader housing market
will likely be limited, and we do not expect
significant spillovers from the subprime market
to the rest of the economy or to the financial
system. The vast majority of mortgages, including
even subprime mortgages, continue to perform
well. Past gains in house prices have left most
homeowners with significant amounts of home
equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should
help keep the financial obligations of most
households manageable.

I agree with you completely. Hadn’t thought of the Hugo angle, but you make an interesting point — many of our imaginings of the future are driven not just by writing, but the images we’ve created. Movies and TV let us experience imagined futures very vividly, which makes us feel even more betrayed when they don’t come true.

Is there a podcast or video of your keynote? I’d like to see it.

Yes, we’re terrible at predicting the future, but we always have been. In fact, my keynote at the Nowthwest Technical Conference for Undergraduates last year was about just this subject.

I like to think of this as the “von Gernsback Syndrome”. Hugo von Gernsback was a classic illustrator of magazine covers for early sci-fi pulps like Amazing Stories and the like. He’s largely the creator of the Jetsons’ version of The Future, where we all have flying cars, domestic robots, live in two-mile-tall spires and wear skintight jumpsuits.

Most prediction is just wishful thinking, our fantasies about the present projected onto the blank slate of The Future. I’ll be interested to read your take on this.

As Firesign Theater said, “Live in The Future! It’s starting now!”

Thanks very much for the comments.

>>I didn’t get a sense that this was really the beginning of the book.

Hmmmm. Thanks, and I’ll think about that some more. I was trying to emulate the introductions to some other business books I’ve seen, which jump right into an example. But maybe I jumped too fast.

>>at the bottom, I would expect there to be a link to “Read Chapter Two” or something like that

Yeah, I’d expect that too. The trick is that as I post each chapter, I haven’t yet posted the next chapter so I can point to it. I need to figure out how to make changes to the posts without having them re-send through the RSS feed. Then I will go back and add these links.

>>As a reader, this would be more interesting if I knew the name of the 12-year-old book….(BTW, I know your style…you don’t like to “out” someone who has made a mistake.

Thanks for giving me the benefit of the doubt. I do think it’s unfair to beat up on the authors when the problem is not that these guys were dumb, but that it’s impossible for anyone to predict the future accurately.

I think I also had a second motive, though — the book was Competing for the Future by Hamel and Prahalad. It was a mega-bestseller among business books, and introduced the idea of core competency, one of the trendiest business ideas of the 1990s. I was a little reluctant to call those guys on the carpet, which qualifies me as a wuss.

I think you have talked me into naming the book.

Your other comments are also helpful. Thanks!

- My overall comment: I didn’t get a sense that this was really the beginning of the book. Why? First, it seems like it might need more of an intro before jumping in and analyzing a 12-year-old book (that isn’t named). That first paragraph is key to hooking a reader or not. Second, at the bottom, I would expect there to be a link to “Read Chapter Two” or something like that. Instead I see something at the bottom “…filed under Chapter” and I click on the word “Chapter” and go to “Archive for the file Chapter.”
- As a reader, this would be more interesting if I knew the name of the 12-year-old book. Maybe that would “hook” me more. Idea: what about linking to that book on Amazon.com? (BTW, I know your style…you don’t like to “out” someone who has made a mistake. So you can ignore this bullet.)
- Are these the only seven predictions? If so, I would say that. If not, then your wording is best.
- I would modify the virtual meeting rooms sentence to say “they aren’t nearly as ubiquitous or as useful as the book predicted.”
- Change “In this blog I’ll give my ideas…” to “In this book I’ll give you my ideas…”

Okay, that’s it.